Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 22 departures that took off between 10:02 AM and 11:02 AM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 15% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 25% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:45 AM and 9:45 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 32% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from St Louis noon–3 PM Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 9:09 PM and 10:39 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 15. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 6:58 PM and 7:58 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from St Louis 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 25 departures scheduled from St Louis (STL) between 5:36 PM and 7:06 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 21. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into STL is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 8:46 PM and 9:46 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Of 17 departures that took off between 7:34 PM and 8:34 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
▲ 53% → 67% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 10:39 AM and 11:39 AM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 9:42 PM and 10:42 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at St Louis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
Of 13 departures that took off between 8:21 PM and 9:21 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. St Louis typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View STL
▲ 69% → 78% since the 6:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Loading earlier updates…
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.