Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3321 at 13:59, 31%.

Safest bet today AA 3321 JFK 13:59 → ORD 15:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest B6 405 JFK 20:16 → ORD 21:51 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Weather 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 54 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3321 American Flight history →	JFK 13:59	ORD 15:53	31%	9%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
AA 1534 American	LGA 14:16	ORD 15:49	32%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 2416 American	EWR 14:15	ORD 15:47	33%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 2250 American Flight history →	EWR 14:20	ORD 16:15	36%	18%	0.3%	57%
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	37%	18%	0.7%	55%
UA 1442 United	LGA 14:31	ORD 16:12	38%	11%	0.4%	no record
UA 2199 United Flight history →	LGA 14:28	ORD 16:14	39%	10%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
WN 2467 Southwest	LGA 15:25	MDW 17:05	40%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 775 United	LGA 21:24	ORD 22:57	40%	16%	0.5%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ORD 16:30	42%	14%	0.4%	64%
AA 2841 American	LGA 21:27	ORD 23:01	42%	17%	0.6%	no record
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	43%	16%	0.5%	66%
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	43%	14%	0.6%	61%
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	43%	14%	0.6%	64%
UA 1830 United Flight history →	LGA 21:25	ORD 22:58	43%	16%	0.7%	56%
WN 942 Southwest	LGA 15:17	MDW 16:35	45%	9%	0.6%	no record
DL 5640 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:35	ORD 21:52	45%	14%	0.6%	65%
AA 3318 American Flight history →	LGA 19:25	ORD 21:35	45%	16%	0.6%	59%
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	46%	17%	0.3%	50%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	46%	16%	0.5%	59%
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	47%	16%	0.6%	53%
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ORD 22:12	48%	18%	0.6%	47%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	EWR 17:21	ORD 19:23	50%	20%	0.4%	70%worse than usual
YX 5599 Republic	JFK 19:43	ORD 21:22	50%	14%	0.5%	no record
AA 752 American Flight history →	LGA 17:29	ORD 19:43	50%	19%	0.6%	54%
WN 4746 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:40	MDW 19:30	50%	14%	0.6%	54%
AA 2909 American	JFK 15:14	ORD 16:55	52%	16%	0.4%	no record
UA 2446 United Flight history →	LGA 19:25	ORD 21:12	52%	19%	0.7%	52%
UA 3772 United	EWR 21:16	ORD 22:49	52%	22%	0.5%	no record
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:00	ORD 20:39	53%	14%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
WN 2546 Southwest	LGA 21:31	MDW 22:51	53%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 2469 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 21:30	MDW 23:00	53%	18%	0.8%	33%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 17:38	ORD 19:34	54%	20%	0.3%	54%
UA 1206 United Flight history →	EWR 21:57	ORD 23:25	54%	22%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	54%	18%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	55%	19%	0.5%	62%worse than usual
UA 1582 United Flight history →	LGA 19:31	ORD 21:03	56%	20%	0.5%	60%worse than usual
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	56%	16%	0.6%	57%worse than usual
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	58%	23%	0.5%	50%
WN 4845 Southwest	LGA 17:46	MDW 19:04	58%	15%	0.6%	no record
AA 1795 American Flight history →	LGA 18:18	ORD 20:04	58%	18%	0.6%	38%
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:37	ORD 22:06	58%	22%	0.5%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	LGA 17:25	ORD 19:12	58%	22%	0.6%	42%
UA 2336 United	LGA 17:28	ORD 19:02	60%	20%	0.5%	no record
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	60%	22%	0.5%	44%
UA 1098 United Flight history →	LGA 18:25	ORD 20:12	60%	19%	0.7%	39%
UA 598 United Flight history →	LGA 18:36	ORD 20:10	65%	19%	0.6%	41%
B6 805 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	ORD 21:58	66%	29%	0.5%	35%
B6 405 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:16	ORD 21:51	67%	27%	0.5%	65%worse than usual
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:00	ORD 17:11	26%	14%	23.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON