Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3
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- Resolved at 9:26 AM EDT
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 23 cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 23 of the 82 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~23.5 over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 1:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 19 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 23 → 19 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~19.4 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 3:00 PM EDT · 19.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 20:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 16 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 19 → 16 expected cancellations since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (19%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.3 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT · 18.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 16 → 21 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.5 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 16.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 17 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 21 → 17 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.9 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT · 13.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 13 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 17 → 13 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.0 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 12:00 AM EDT · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 10 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.1 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 1:00 AM EDT · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 05:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 7 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.2 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 2:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 06:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 3 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.3 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 5:00 AM EDT · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 09:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 85 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.6 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 8:00 AM EDT · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?