tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 231 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 231 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (231 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (231 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 10:25 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 10 cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 58 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.2 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday

    What changed: about 10 → 4 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 58 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.0 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 3:00 AM EDT · 16.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday to about 2

    What changed: about 4 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 58 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 9:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.6 over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 9:00 AM EDT · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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