tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 231 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 231 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (231 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (231 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 9:26 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 21 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 95 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~20.6 over 95 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 21 → 10 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.0 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 3:00 AM EDT · 13.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 08:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.2 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 4:00 AM EDT · 13.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 4 among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 9 → 4 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EDT forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.3 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 2

    What changed: about 4 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.3 over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 8:00 AM EDT · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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