tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 230 h staleForecast cycle 77 minLightning 230 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (230 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (230 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 38%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 82 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 1:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 38%, near normal

    What changed: 42% → 38%; calm-weather level 31%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Sunday an average 38% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-18 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)38% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-18 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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