Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 7:56 AM EDT
- Started
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 16 cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.3 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 4:00 PM EDT · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 16 → 12 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (17%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.7 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 17 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 17 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 17 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (24%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.6 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 19.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 8 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 17 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.2 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 3:00 AM EDT · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 3 among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 3 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 5:00 AM EDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 09:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 3–6 PM Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 3 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 70 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.6 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 7:00 AM EDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?