Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 6:57 AM EDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 8
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 21 cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (25%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~21.2 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 10:00 AM EDT · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 14:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 18 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 21 → 18 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 84 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~18.0 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 4:00 PM EDT · 16.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 18 → 13 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 84 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.8 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT · 15.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 19 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 19 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~19.1 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 13.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 8 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 19 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.4 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 84 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.0 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 10:00 PM EDT · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 02:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 5 among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 85 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.1 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 2:00 AM EDT · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 06:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 9 AM–noon Sunday to about 3
What changed: about 5 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 86 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target MIA departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-18 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.9 over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Oct 18, 6:00 AM EDT · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?