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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation MIA departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Sunday to about 3

Current state: Resolved at 11:58 PM EDT
Started: Sat Oct 17, 7:00 AM EDT
Latest activity: Sat Oct 17, 11:58 PM EDT
Updates: 6

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Sat Oct 17, 8:34 AM EDT

Model expects about 9 cancellations among Miami departures 6–9 AM Sunday

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 68 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~8.8 over 68 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Oct 17, 7:00 AM EDT · 21.4 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3
Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 7:00 AM EDT
Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 8:34 AM EDT
Published here	Sat Oct 17, 8:34 AM EDT (2026-10-17 12:34 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-16.2 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Oct 17, 5:57 PM EDT

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Sunday

What changed: about 9 → 5 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EDT forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 70 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~5.3 over 70 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT · 12.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3
Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 5:00 PM EDT
Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 5:57 PM EDT
Published here	Sat Oct 17, 5:57 PM EDT (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Oct 17, 7:57 PM EDT

Updated model now expects about 8 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Sunday

What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 70 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~7.6 over 70 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT · 10.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 7:00 PM EDT
Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 7:57 PM EDT
Published here	Sat Oct 17, 7:57 PM EDT (2026-10-17 23:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Oct 17, 9:27 PM EDT

Updated model now expects about 6 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Sunday

What changed: about 8 → 6 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EDT forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 70 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~5.8 over 70 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · 8.5 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT
Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 9:27 PM EDT
Published here	Sat Oct 17, 9:27 PM EDT (2026-10-18 01:27 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Oct 17, 10:57 PM EDT

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Miami departures 6–9 AM Sunday

What changed: about 6 → 3 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EDT forecast

Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 71 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

Evidence for this update

Target	MIA departures 6–9 AM 2026-10-18 (cancelled)
Expected cancellations	~3.1 over 71 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT · 7.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Oct 17, 9:00 PM EDT
Ingested	Sat Oct 17, 10:57 PM EDT
Published here	Sat Oct 17, 10:57 PM EDT (2026-10-18 02:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Resolution Forecast Sat Oct 17, 11:58 PM EDT