Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 31%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 8:56 PM PDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 PM–midnight Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 23 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 56%
What changed: 54% → 56% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 23 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 1:00 PM PDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 44%
What changed: 56% → 44% since the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 23 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Saturday to 31%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 31%; calm-weather level 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 23 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 8:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 31% over 23 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 8:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-18 03:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?