tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning <1 minWeather observations <1 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay SAN departures

Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SANFlights at SAN

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT · 4.7 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 54%

    What changed: 44% → 54% since the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 8:00 AM PDT · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 15:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises San Diego departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 61%

    What changed: 54% → 61% since the 8:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from San Diego noon–3 PM Saturday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 17, 11:00 AM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-17 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Oct 17, 12:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.