Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 60%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 46% delay risk for San Diego departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 46% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT · 7.7 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 55%
What changed: 46% → 55% since the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 49%
What changed: 55% → 49% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 10:00 AM PDT · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 60%
What changed: 49% → 60% since the 10:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 57 departures scheduled from San Diego 3–6 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM PDT · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Oct 17, 3:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.