Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 54%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for San Diego departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 6:00 AM PDT · 10.7 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 14:17 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday at 52%
What changed: 41% → 52% since the 6:00 AM PDT forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 52% → 59% since the 9:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 11:00 AM PDT · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 54%
What changed: 59% → 54% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 55%
What changed: 54% → 55% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 29 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 3:00 PM PDT · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 54%
What changed: 55% → 54% since the 3:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 30 departures scheduled from San Diego 6–9 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-17 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 30 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 17, 4:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-17 23:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Oct 17, 6:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.