tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 74 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Miami departures 6–9 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 143 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 8:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 55%

    What changed: 45% → 55% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 143 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 10:00 AM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 66%

    What changed: 55% → 66% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 143 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 143 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Wednesday to 51%

    What changed: 66% → 51% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 144 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Wednesday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 144 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 1:00 PM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Wed Nov 4, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.