tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 75 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 50%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Miami departures 3–6 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 10:00 AM EST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 63%

    What changed: 49% → 63% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 12:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 17:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 3–6 PM Wednesday to 50%

    What changed: 63% → 50% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Miami 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 107 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 1:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Wed Nov 4, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.