tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 74 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Miami departures noon–3 PM Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 126 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 10:00 AM EST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk noon–3 PM Wednesday to 57%

    What changed: 52% → 57% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from Miami noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 126 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Wed Nov 4, 12:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.