tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 h staleForecast cycle 61 minLightning 221 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min

FAA NAS status is stale (221 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (221 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 48%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Miami departures 9 PM–midnight Wednesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 9:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 54%

    What changed: 41% → 54% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 10:00 AM EST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday at 60%

    What changed: 54% → 60% since the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 11:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Wednesday to 48%

    What changed: 60% → 48% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from Miami 9 PM–midnight Wednesday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-04 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 4, 1:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-04 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Wed Nov 4, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.