tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation EWR departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday to about 2

Current state
Resolved at 5:56 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 95 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.8 over 95 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 9:00 PM EST · 17.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Friday to about 2

    What changed: about 6 → 2

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 96 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Friday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~1.5 over 96 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?