Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 28%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Newark departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 99 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 3:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 28%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 28%; calm-weather level 18%
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Friday an average 28% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 28% over 99 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 4:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?