Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:26 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 12:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Friday to 29%, near normal
What changed: 42% → 29%; calm-weather level 16%
Tailodds’ model gives the 105 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 29% over 105 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 2:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?