Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 8
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 52% delay risk for JFK departures 3–6 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 90 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 4:00 PM EST · 22.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-05 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%
What changed: 52% → 56% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 9:00 PM EST · 17.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 53%
What changed: 56% → 53% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 10:00 PM EST · 16.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 11:00 PM EST · 15.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 05:03 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 51%
What changed: 56% → 51% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 12:00 AM EST · 14.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday at 61%
What changed: 51% → 61% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 54%
What changed: 61% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 104 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 65%
What changed: 54% → 65% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 65% over 103 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.