tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 73 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 49%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for JFK departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Friday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 67 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 1:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-05 18:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday at 66%

    What changed: 41% → 66% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 77 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 77 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 49%

    What changed: 66% → 49% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 11:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.