tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for JFK departures 9 AM–noon Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 106 departures scheduled from JFK 9 AM–noon Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 106 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.