Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 57%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 8
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 10:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 57%
What changed: 54% → 57% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 5, 11:00 PM EST · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 05:03 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 52%
What changed: 57% → 52% since the 11:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 12:00 AM EST · 20.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 56%
What changed: 52% → 56% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 9:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 66%
What changed: 56% → 66% since the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 66% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 12:00 PM EST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 17:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 53%
What changed: 66% → 53% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 2:00 PM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 61%
What changed: 53% → 61% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 61% over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 3:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-06 20:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 57%
What changed: 61% → 57% since the 3:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 6, 7:00 PM EST · 0.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-07 01:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.