tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay JFK departures

Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 01:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 58%

    What changed: 55% → 58% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 9:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 5, 9:00 PM EST · 20.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 55%

    What changed: 58% → 55% since the 9:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 AM EST · 17.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 64%

    What changed: 55% → 64% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 97 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 13:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.