tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 68 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay BOS departures

Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 6:57 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Boston departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)40% over 121 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 51%

    What changed: 40% → 51% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 2:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 36%

    What changed: 51% → 36% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)36% over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 5:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 10:59 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Boston departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 31%, near normal

    What changed: 36% → 31%; calm-weather level 17%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Boston 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetBOS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-07 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)31% over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 7, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 11:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?