Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 54%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 48% delay risk for JFK departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 48% over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-11 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 63%
What changed: 48% → 63% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Thursday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 63% over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 09:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 54%
What changed: 63% → 54% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 42%
What changed: 54% → 42% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 95 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 95 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 54%
What changed: 42% → 54% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 96 departures scheduled from JFK 3–6 PM Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 96 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Thu Nov 12, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.