Model raises JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 56% delay risk for JFK departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 101 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 101 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST · 21.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 55%
What changed: 56% → 55% since the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 7:00 AM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday at 58%
What changed: 55% → 58% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 12:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 71%
What changed: 58% → 71% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 99 departures scheduled from JFK 6–9 PM Thursday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 71% over 99 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Thu Nov 12, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.