Model raises JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 69%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 53% delay risk for JFK departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 10:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 56%
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 10:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 17.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 54%
What changed: 56% → 54% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST · 11.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday at 58%
What changed: 54% → 58% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 1:00 PM EST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 18:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises JFK departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 69%
What changed: 58% → 69% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 3:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target JFK departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 69% over 71 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 3:00 PM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Thu Nov 12, 9:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.