tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 1:56 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for SFO departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 88 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 88 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 6:00 PM PST · 20.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 02:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday to 37%, near normal

    What changed: 44% → 37%; calm-weather level 41%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from SFO 3–6 PM Thursday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)37% over 91 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 1:00 PM PST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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