tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 83 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SFO departures

Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 5:27 PM PST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for SFO departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 2:00 PM PST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers SFO departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 46%, near normal

    What changed: 50% → 46%; calm-weather level 39%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from SFO 6–9 PM Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSFO departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 4:00 PM PST · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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