tailodds FORECAST
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Observed Major Resolved Delay SFO departures

SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Observed

    SFO departures running late: 56% left 15+ min late in the last hour

    Of 27 departures that took off between 9:08 AM and 10:08 AM PST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window9:08 AM–10:08 AM PST
    Sample27 flights, 15 late (56%)
    Comparison18% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour
    Median delay16.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 18:08 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Observed

    SFO departure delays worsen: 73% late in the last hour

    What changed: late share 56% → 73%

    Of 22 departures that took off between 11:06 AM and 12:06 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. SFO typically sees 28% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

    Evidence for this update
    Measurement window11:06 AM–12:06 PM PST
    Sample22 flights, 16 late (73%)
    Comparison28% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour
    Median delay30.0 min
    MethodFAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 20:06 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
    Provenanceobserved_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 6:54 PM PST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.