Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among National departures 6–9 AM Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among National departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.8 over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 13 among National departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 81 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.3 over 81 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among National departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 16 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 81 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.4 over 81 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 36 among National departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 16 → 36 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 36 of the 82 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target DCA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~36.5 over 82 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.