tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation AUS departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 40 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (22%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.6 over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM CST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 7 among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 9 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 41 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.4 over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 4:00 AM CST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Austin departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 7 → 5 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM CST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 42 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.6 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 8:00 AM CST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.