tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation RDU departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 5 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 40 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.1 over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 5 → 16 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 40 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.8 over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 16 → 13 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 40 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.0 over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    What changed: about 13 → 4 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 41 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~4.1 over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.