Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 47%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Sunday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 54%
What changed: 42% → 54% since the 2:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 56%
What changed: 54% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 47%
What changed: 56% → 47% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 35 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham noon–3 PM Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?