tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 86 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay RDU departures

Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 52%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View RDUFlights at RDU

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 40 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 12:00 AM EST · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 52%

    What changed: 41% → 52% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.