Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 52%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Raleigh/Durham departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 46 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 58%
What changed: 52% → 58% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 45 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Raleigh/Durham departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 52%
What changed: 58% → 52% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Raleigh/Durham 3–6 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 52% over 46 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?