tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation RDU departures

Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 3

Current state
Resolved at 8:26 AM EST
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 42 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.6 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures 6–9 PM Sunday to about 3

    What changed: about 7 → 3

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 42 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetRDU departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~2.7 over 42 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 9.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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