Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 2
- Current state
- Resolved at 10:57 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.1 over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 12 among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 14 → 12 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (35%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.1 over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Sunday
What changed: about 12 → 3 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 7:00 AM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Raleigh/Durham departures noon–3 PM Sunday to about 2
What changed: about 3 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 35 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target RDU departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~1.7 over 35 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?