tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 77 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay JFK departures

Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 51%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View JFKFlights at JFK

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for JFK departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Sunday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 56%

    What changed: 45% → 56% since the 3:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM EST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers JFK departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 51%

    What changed: 56% → 51% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 71 departures scheduled from JFK noon–3 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetJFK departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 71 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.