tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay ORD departures

Model forecasts 55% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 55% delay risk for O'Hare departures 6–9 AM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 240 departures scheduled from O'Hare 6–9 AM Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetORD departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 240 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM CST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.