tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for National departures 6–9 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 3:00 PM EDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 20:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises National departure delay risk 6–9 PM Thursday to 57%

    What changed: 48% → 57% since the 3:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 80 departures scheduled from National 6–9 PM Thursday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 80 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 5:00 PM EDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 6:00 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.