tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay DCA departures

Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 34%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View DCAFlights at DCA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for National departures 9 PM–midnight Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 5:00 PM EDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers National departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Thursday to 34%

    What changed: 46% → 34% since the 5:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from National 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetDCA departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-22 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)34% over 27 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 22, 6:00 PM EDT · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-22 22:55 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Thu Oct 22, 9:00 PM EDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.