Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:45 PM–8:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%
What changed: 69% → 66% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 1.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 47% at worst → 23% now
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 4:28 PM and 5:28 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:28 PM–5:28 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Thursday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 79 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Thursday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 16 departures that took off between 1:19 PM and 2:19 PM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:19 PM–2:19 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 56%Typical 32%
Of 21 departures that took off between 7:05 PM and 8:05 PM CST, 15 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 44% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:05 PM–8:05 PM CSTSample 21 flightsLate 71%Typical 44%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:37 PM and 11:37 PM CST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:37 PM–11:37 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 23%
What changed: 50% → 52%; calm-weather level 45%
Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 74 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Monday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 50%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:29 PM and 10:29 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:29 PM–10:29 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 53%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 89% → 73%
Of 15 departures that took off between 9:19 PM and 10:19 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 47% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:19 PM–10:19 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 73%Typical 47%
What changed: late share 52% at worst → 25% now
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 8:56 PM and 9:56 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:56 PM–9:56 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 25%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 28 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 87% → 72%
Of 18 departures that took off between 10:14 PM and 11:14 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 51% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:14 PM–11:14 PM CSTSample 18 flightsLate 72%Typical 51%
What changed: late share 74% → 43%
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 8:34 PM and 9:34 PM CST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:34 PM–9:34 PM CSTSample 23 flightsLate 43%Typical 23%
What changed: 75% → 76% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 45 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 76%Horizon 0.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 54% → 66% since the 11:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Nashville 3–6 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 66%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 67% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Nashville 6–9 PM Friday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 3.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 48%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 57% at worst → 29% now
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 9:07 PM and 10:07 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 9:07 PM–10:07 PM CSTSample 28 flightsLate 29%Typical 23%
Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Nashville 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 59%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 53% at worst → 23% now
Of 22 arrivals that landed between 7:06 PM and 8:06 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 23% of arrivals at Nashville arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:06 PM–8:06 PM CSTSample 22 flightsLate 23%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 72% → 50%
Of 14 departures that took off between 11:19 AM and 12:19 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Nashville typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:19 AM–12:19 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 50%Typical 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 104 departures scheduled from Nashville noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 43%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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