Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 PM–midnight Sunday an average 80% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 54%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 80%Horizon 10.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 67% → 81% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Sunday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 53%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 70% → 83% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 58% → 60%
Of 15 departures that took off between 9:46 AM and 10:46 AM CST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:46 AM–10:46 AM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 60%Typical 17%
What changed: 74% → 70% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 81% → 70% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 70%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Sunday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 51%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 67%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 64% → 81% since the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 81%Horizon 4.6 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 12 departures that took off between 6:14 AM and 7:14 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 5% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:14 AM–7:14 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 58%Typical 5%
What changed: 61% → 74% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 34 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 74% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 74%Horizon 9.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 55% → 64% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 55% → 55% since the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 4.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 33% → 30%; calm-weather level 9%
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 30%Horizon 3.5 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 52% → 64% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 64%Horizon 10.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 41% → 55% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 40 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 55%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 44% → 33% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 33% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 10:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 33%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 9%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.5 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 4:45 PM and 5:45 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Love Field arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:45 PM–5:45 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 22%
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 61%Horizon 22.0 hModel famA-fc-v3
Of 13 departures that took off between 1:59 PM and 2:59 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Love Field typically sees 30% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:59 PM–2:59 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 85%Typical 30%
What changed: 79% → 90% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 90% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 90%Horizon 3.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Love Field noon–3 PM Sunday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 52%Horizon 21.5 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: 78% → 89% since the 10:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Love Field 3–6 PM Saturday an average 89% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 89%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Love Field 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 41%Horizon 22.1 hModel famA-fc-v3
What changed: 68% → 79% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 19 departures scheduled from Love Field 6–9 PM Saturday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 10:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 79%Horizon 7.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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