Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 221 hstaleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 221 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data <1 min
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Of 13 arrivals that landed between 10:33 PM and 11:33 PM EST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 20 departures that took off between 8:37 PM and 9:37 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 52% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 67% → 67% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 75 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Thursday an average 67% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 57% → 56% since the 12:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Thursday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 12:53 PM and 1:53 PM EST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Thursday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 22 departures that took off between 6:29 PM and 7:29 PM EST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 11:15 PM and 12:15 AM EST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:15 PM–12:15 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 52%Typical 27%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View FLL
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 11:56 PM and 12:56 AM EST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:56 PM–12:56 AM ESTSample 13 flightsLate 77%Typical 27%
Of 29 departures that took off between 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM EST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 33% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Saturday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 13 departures that took off between 4:01 PM and 5:01 PM EST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 40% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 4 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 19 arrivals that landed between 11:18 PM and 12:18 AM EST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:18 PM–12:18 AM ESTSample 19 flightsLate 68%Typical 27%
What changed: 72% → 71% since the 6:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 71% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 71% → 66% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 6–9 PM Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 15 departures that took off between 3:17 PM and 4:17 PM EST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 37% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
What changed: 50% → 61% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 82 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 25% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 10:25 PM and 11:25 PM EST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 27% of arrivals at Fort Lauderdale arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 21 departures that took off between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM EST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Fort Lauderdale typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:00 AM–11:00 AM ESTSample 21 flightsLate 24%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale 3–6 PM Wednesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Wednesday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 9:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Observed
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