Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 80 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 6 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
What changed: 53% → 60% since the 1:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 60%Horizon 9.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 40% → 51% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 51%Horizon 8.5 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 8:28 PM and 9:28 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 19 departures that took off between 6:21 PM and 7:21 PM PST, 19 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Las Vegas midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 59% → 84% since the 3:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 81% → 81% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 6–9 PM Friday an average 81% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 59%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
FAA-reported departure delays at Las Vegas (LAS) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 2:00 PM PST, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 12:52 PM PST.
What changed: 57% → 85% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 103 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 85% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 85%Horizon 1.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 23 departures that took off between 11:27 AM and 12:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 114 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Friday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 42%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 1.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Of 25 arrivals that landed between 6:04 AM and 7:04 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:04 AM–7:04 AM PSTSample 25 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 107 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 30 departures that took off between 10:16 AM and 11:16 AM PST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:16 AM–11:16 AM PSTSample 30 flightsLate 10%Typical 19%
Of 27 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 0%Typical 6%
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 6:33 AM and 7:33 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:33 AM–7:33 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:58 AM and 6:58 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:58 AM–6:58 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 5:59 AM and 6:59 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:59 AM–6:59 AM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 3%Typical 21%
Of 20 departures that took off between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 20 flightsLate 5%Typical 6%
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 5:55 AM and 6:55 AM PST, 0 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 21% of arrivals at Las Vegas arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:55 AM–6:55 AM PSTSample 21 flightsLate 0%Typical 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 31 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Las Vegas typically sees 6% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 16% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:48 AM–6:48 AM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 6%Typical 6%
Tailodds’ model gives the 164 departures scheduled from Las Vegas noon–3 PM Thursday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 8.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
Tailodds’ model gives the 162 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
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Observed
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Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?