Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Of 16 departures that took off between 10:06 PM and 11:06 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:35 PM and 10:35 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 6:17 PM and 7:17 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 29 departures that took off between 5:45 PM and 6:45 PM CST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 47 departures that took off between 2:43 PM and 3:43 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 38 departures that took off between 5:52 PM and 6:52 PM CST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 35 departures that took off between 2:25 PM and 3:25 PM CST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 28 departures that took off between 8:31 AM and 9:31 AM CST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 13% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 23% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:31 AM–9:31 AM CSTSample 28 flightsLate 7%Typical 13%
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 8:44 PM and 9:44 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 39 departures that took off between 5:58 PM and 6:58 PM CST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 26% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 4:00 PM and 5:00 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Minneapolis 6–9 PM Friday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 10:53 AM and 11:53 AM CST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:53 AM–11:53 AM CSTSample 24 flightsLate 4%Typical 18%
Of 42 departures that took off between 10:16 AM and 11:16 AM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 27% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:16 AM–11:16 AM CSTSample 42 flightsLate 17%Typical 17%
Of 30 departures that took off between 8:50 AM and 9:50 AM CST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 13% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 23% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:50 AM–9:50 AM CSTSample 30 flightsLate 17%Typical 13%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 9:50 PM and 10:50 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 3:27 PM and 4:27 PM CST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 18 departures that took off between 9:21 PM and 10:21 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 32 departures that took off between 8:05 PM and 9:05 PM CST, 3 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 26 arrivals that landed between 3:47 PM and 4:47 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 18% of arrivals at Minneapolis arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 36 departures that took off between 2:43 PM and 3:43 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 24 departures that took off between 12:33 PM and 1:33 PM CST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Minneapolis typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Minneapolis noon–3 PM Monday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 6.0 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
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