Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
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Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 26 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 22 → 10 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Of 16 departures that took off between 11:56 AM and 12:56 PM EST, 10 left at least 15 minutes late. Philadelphia typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 22 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 8 → 26 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 7 → 22 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 22 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (33%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 5 → 18 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 18 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (37%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 44% → 56% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 56%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 47% → 57% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4iModel changed
What changed: 43% → 54% since the 7:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 22 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 PM–midnight Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 10:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: about 20 → 6 expected cancellations since the 7:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 21 → 7 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 15 → 5 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: about 11 → 20 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 65 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 6–9 PM Saturday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 25%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 44%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 56% → 43% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 47% → 34% since the 6:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 62 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 14%. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 66 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 41% → 56% since the 5:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Philadelphia noon–3 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Philadelphia 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 15%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 65 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (32%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 48 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.